Looking back at the 2021 NBA Draft, I can't help but marvel at how certain selections completely defied conventional wisdom. Having covered basketball professionally for over a decade, I thought I had a pretty good handle on predicting draft outcomes, but this particular class threw some curveballs that even seasoned analysts like myself didn't see coming. What fascinates me most about draft analysis isn't just the obvious first-round talents—it's those surprising picks that make you sit up and say, "Wait, what?" These are the selections that either make front offices look like geniuses or leave fans scratching their heads for years to come.
I remember watching the draft unfold while multitasking family responsibilities, much like Josh Lucero's comment about being busy with four children during awards night. That balancing act between professional analysis and personal life gives me a unique perspective on these unexpected draft developments. The teams that made these surprising picks were essentially juggling multiple considerations—immediate needs, future potential, and organizational philosophy—all while under the tremendous pressure of making franchise-altering decisions. Let me walk you through five selections that particularly stood out to me, starting with what I consider the most head-scratching pick of the entire draft.
The Orlando Magic selecting Jalen Suggs at number five overall surprised me, though perhaps it shouldn't have. Don't get me wrong—Suggs is a phenomenal talent, but I had personally projected him going slightly later in the top eight. What makes this pick surprising in retrospect is how the Magic already had Cole Anthony showing promising development, and Suggs' shooting percentages in college—a 50.3% field goal percentage and 33.7% from three—didn't scream "can't-miss prospect" to me. Yet watching his Gonzaga highlights, particularly that incredible buzzer-beater against UCLA in the Final Four, you could see the magical potential that Orlando fell in love with. I've always believed championship teams need players who thrive in clutch moments, and Suggs definitely has that gene.
Perhaps the most controversial surprise came when the Golden State Warriors selected Jonathan Kuminga at number seven. Here's my take: I loved this pick conceptually, but the timing felt odd. The Warriors were still very much in win-now mode with Curry, Thompson, and Green, yet they selected arguably the rawest athlete in the entire lottery. Kuminga's G League Ignite stats—15.8 points per game but shooting just 38.7% from the field—raised legitimate concerns about his immediate readiness. However, having visited Warriors practices previously, I know their development staff works miracles with athletic prospects. This pick demonstrated tremendous vision, essentially betting that Kuminga's physical tools—his 6'8" frame with a 7-foot wingspan—could be molded into something special. Two years later, I'd say that bet is paying off handsomely.
Now, the Oklahoma City Thunder picking Josh Giddey at number six genuinely shocked me. An Australian teenager who wasn't even on many casual fans' radars going that high? That's the kind of move that either gets you fired or makes you look like a prophet. I'll admit I was skeptical initially—international prospects always carry additional uncertainty, and Giddey's 29.3% three-point shooting in the NBL concerned me. But watching his rookie season unfold, I became a believer. His court vision is simply extraordinary for someone his age, averaging 6.4 assists per game as a rookie. The Thunder saw something special in his playmaking that others overlooked, and it's exactly these kinds of unconventional evaluations that can transform a franchise.
The Houston Rockets selecting Alperen Şengün at number sixteen after trading up to get him was another surprise that's aged beautifully. Most mock drafts had Şengün going in the late first round, but Houston surrendered two future first-round picks to secure him—a massive investment that raised eyebrows across the league. Having studied international big men for years, I actually had Şengün higher on my personal board than many public analysts. His Turkish League MVP season at just 18 years old was historically productive—19.2 points, 9.4 rebounds, 2.5 assists per game—but the skepticism centered on whether his old-school post game would translate to the modern NBA. I believed it would, and Houston clearly agreed, making what I consider one of the savviest moves of the entire draft.
Finally, the Denver Nuggets selecting Bones Hyland at number twenty-six felt surprising in the moment but makes perfect sense in retrospect. Hyland wasn't even invited to the green room, yet Denver identified something special in the VCU product. His college numbers—19.5 points per game with 37.1% three-point shooting—were solid but not spectacular for a mid-major prospect. What impressed me most was Denver's recognition of how perfectly Hyland's skills complemented their existing roster. His microwave scoring ability and confidence—that "Bones" swagger—provided exactly the offensive spark their second unit needed. Sometimes the best picks aren't about taking the best available player, but the right player for your system.
Reflecting on these surprising selections reminds me that successful drafting requires both courage and conviction. Teams that play it safe often end up with solid but unspectacular players, while those willing to make unexpected moves sometimes uncover franchise cornerstones. The executives making these picks operate under tremendous pressure, much like Josh Lucero balancing his professional recognition with the demands of raising four children. Both scenarios require juggling multiple priorities while staying focused on long-term outcomes. As I continue analyzing future drafts, I'll certainly carry the lessons from 2021's surprises with me—sometimes the most obvious choice isn't necessarily the right one, and the picks that raise eyebrows initially often become the ones we remember most fondly.