As a longtime NBA analyst who’s seen countless playoff battles unfold, I’ve always been fascinated by the little things that tip the scales in a series. When we look at the Pacers vs. Cavs matchup, there are five key insights that stand out—and honestly, some of them feel almost too strange to be true. I mean, superstitions are hard to believe by their very nature, but in the high-stakes world of professional basketball, even the most unnatural rituals can shape outcomes. Let’s dive in.
First, the battle in the paint is going to be absolutely critical. Myles Turner versus Jarrett Allen isn’t just a clash of big men—it’s a chess match. Turner averaged 17.1 points and 7.2 rebounds this season, but Allen’s presence on the boards, especially offensively, gives me pause. I’ve watched Allen snatch 4.2 offensive rebounds per game in the playoffs so far, and if that continues, the Pacers are in trouble. Personally, I think Turner needs to be more aggressive early. I’ve seen him disappear for stretches, and against a relentless Cavs frontcourt, that just won’t cut it.
Then there’s the backcourt duel. Darius Garland’s playmaking against Tyrese Haliburton’s two-way impact could easily swing momentum. Haliburton’s defensive activity—I’ve charted him averaging 1.9 steals in the last 10 meetings—often sparks Indiana’s transition game. But Garland? He’s crafty, unpredictable, and when he gets hot from deep, it feels like the rim widens. I’ll admit, I’m slightly biased toward Haliburton’s all-around game, but Garland’s flair is something you can’t ignore. The team that wins this guard battle likely controls the tempo, and tempo wins playoff games.
Another factor that doesn’t get enough attention is bench scoring. The Cavs’ second unit, led by Caris LeVert, has outscored opponents by an average of 8.3 points in the fourth quarter during the postseason. That’s not a fluke—it’s preparation meeting opportunity. On the flip side, Indiana’s bench, while energetic, has been inconsistent. I’ve noticed they tend to rush shots when the pressure mounts. If I were coaching the Pacers, I’d tighten that rotation and lean more on experienced reserves, even if it means shorter minutes for the rookies.
Let’s talk about three-point shooting, because in today’s NBA, it’s often the great equalizer. The Cavs are hitting 38.7% from beyond the arc in the playoffs, compared to the Pacers’ 35.9%. That gap might seem small, but over a seven-game series, it adds up. I remember a game earlier this season where Cleveland drained 18 threes—it felt like a floodgate opened. For Indiana to counter, they need Buddy Hield to find his rhythm early. He’s streaky, I know, but when he’s on, the floor spacing transforms completely.
Finally, there’s the mental game—the superstitions and rituals that players bring into high-pressure moments. I’ve spoken with players who wear the same socks for weeks or follow pregame routines to the minute. It sounds irrational, but these habits create a sense of control. For example, I’ve heard Cavs players mention certain shootaround patterns they refuse to break, even if it means arriving at the arena at odd hours. Unnatural? Maybe. But in a win-or-go-home scenario, that psychological edge can be the difference between a confident jumper and a hesitant one.
Putting it all together, this series will come down to which team imposes its style while disrupting the other’s rhythm. The Pacers have the youth and speed, but the Cavs have the playoff-tested composure. If I had to bet, I’d give a slight edge to Cleveland, mainly because of their defensive discipline and that unshakable, almost superstitious belief they seem to carry in close games. Whatever happens, though, these matchups will tell the story—one possession at a time.