As I sit here analyzing the upcoming Pacers-Cavaliers playoff series, I can't help but think about how much NBA basketball resembles modern superstition - we cling to certain beliefs despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary. The Pacers enter this series as clear underdogs, but having watched every Indiana game this season, I'm convinced they have what it takes to pull off the upset. Let me explain why this matchup fascinates me personally and why the numbers might not tell the whole story.
The Cavaliers finished the regular season with an impressive 48-34 record, but here's something most analysts overlook - they went just 2-2 against Indiana during the regular season. I've noticed Cleveland tends to rely heavily on Donovan Mitchell's scoring bursts, and when he's contained, their offense often stagnates. Meanwhile, the Pacers play this beautiful, unselfish basketball that reminds me of those Spurs teams from the early 2010s. Tyrese Haliburton's impact goes far beyond his 20.1 points and 10.9 assists per game - he makes everyone around him better in ways that don't always show up in traditional stats.
What really intrigues me about this series is the Pascal Siakam-Evan Mobley matchup. Having watched Mobley develop over the past three seasons, I've seen him struggle against versatile forwards who can score from multiple levels. Siakam, acquired in that mid-season trade I initially questioned, has been absolutely phenomenal for Indiana, averaging 21.3 points on 55% shooting since joining the team. His experience in big moments - remember his crucial role in Toronto's 2019 championship run - gives Indiana an edge that Cleveland's younger core simply can't match.
The bench battle could decide this series, and frankly, I give Indiana the clear advantage here. Their second unit outscored opponents by an average of 4.2 points per 100 possessions during the regular season, while Cleveland's reserves often struggled to maintain leads. Obi Toppin provides explosive scoring off the pine, and T.J. McConnell's pesky defense disrupts opposing guards in ways that remind me of Patrick Beverley in his prime. These role players might not get headlines, but in a seven-game series, they become incredibly valuable.
Defensively, Indiana needs to employ the strategy that worked so well for them in their March 18th victory over Cleveland - double Mitchell aggressively and force others to beat them. The numbers show Mitchell's usage rate jumps to 34.7% in playoff games, and if Indiana can make him a volume shooter rather than an efficient scorer, they'll have success. My concern is Cleveland's three-point shooting - they connected on 36.7% of attempts during the season, and if they get hot from deep, Indiana's defense could collapse.
The coaching matchup presents another fascinating layer. Rick Carlisle has been here before, having coached nearly 1,800 NBA games and won a championship with Dallas in 2011. His ability to make in-series adjustments surpasses J.B. Bickerstaff's, in my opinion. I've noticed Carlisle tends to exploit specific matchups as series progress, something that could prove crucial if this goes six or seven games.
Ultimately, I'm picking Indiana in seven games, though most of my colleagues would call this prediction overly optimistic. The Pacers have shown resilience all season, and their offensive rating of 120.5 actually bests Cleveland's 116.2. Sometimes we get caught up in star power and tradition, much like how people cling to superstitions despite evidence suggesting otherwise. The Cavaliers might be the safer pick, but Indiana's cohesive system and underrated talent create the perfect conditions for an upset. This series will come down to which team can impose their style, and I believe Indiana's pace and ball movement will ultimately prevail against Cleveland's more isolation-heavy approach.